CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-23T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-23T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32145/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the E in all coronagraphs. The source is an M2.4 flare from an unnumbered region on the SE limb around S10E77, which peaked at 2024-07-23T14:28Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131. Also observed starting around 2024-07-23T13:34Z as rapid field line opening with an EUV wave, followed by post-eruptive arcades, in SDO AIA 171/193/211 with surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. No CME or CME shock arrival signature in solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-25T23:05Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 17:57
 - Time at C2: 2024-07-23 14:48
 - Radial speed: 950.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S07E37
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 691.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-07-25 23:05 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.30 hours)
Lead Time: 23.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-07-24T23:15Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement